The experts are fallible
The economic experts of capitalism—the City Editors, the economists, the financial seers—sit on something of a pedestal. Whatever twists and turns the economy may take, they are never caught without a remedy. Their readers, political parties, even governments, hang upon their words.
Which makes it very embarrassing for everybody, if the experts are shown to be as fallible as the rest.
Mr. Samuel Brittan is the Economic Editor of The Observer and last year, like all men in his position, he was expected to comment on the Selwyn Lloyd “pay pause” Budget. This is what he wrote, on September 3rd last:
I have a feeling that Mr. Selwyn Lloyd is going to surprise many people by his success in carrying out his economic policies . . . many of the people who are now most vociferous in denouncing him may be loudest in his praise a year from now.
Mr. Brittan went on to point out that in some ways the Lloyd policy was following behind events and then gave his reasons for thinking that ". . . Mr. Lloyd has been so much luckier than his predecessors . . ."
Now—almost a year after—what does Mr. Brittan think of the Lloyd policies? Is he loud in his praise? He is not. He has been doing his homework in The Economist and has been impressed by an article in the 12th May issue of that weekly which drew some striking comparisons between the Lloyd squeeze, and what has followed it, and the Butler squeeze of 1957 and what followed that. This is what Mr. Brittan wrote in The Observer of 10th June this year:
On both occasions the same kind of arguments have led to the same mistakes. Mr. Selwyn Lloyd too often gives the impression of believing that history began in July, 1961, and has not devoted enough time to studying the mistakes of his predecessors.
And later in the same article:
Government financial measures have in recent years actually accentuated the trade fluctuations that they were supposed to control.
If Mr. Brittan was wrong, a year ago, when he expected the Lloyd policies would be lucky enough to succeed, he could of course equally be wrong now that he is criticising the Chancellor. Capitalism is a baffling system which can catch out the experts. But if that is going to happen, there is no point in basing experts, is there?
By a few shares
A new campaign is announced by the Wider Share Ownership Committee, aimed as its name suggests to encourage more people to buy shares. It would seem to have timed its effort rather badly. After the recent Wall Street debacle we would imagine that many a small investor has gone back to his account in the Savings Bank or the old sock under the bed.
The number of shareholders in the U.K. has apparently increased over the past ten years from about a million to 3½ million. Much of this increase is presumably accounted for by firms like ICI distributing shares to their workers and to lots of small men being persuaded on to the stock exchange band-wagon by tales that capitalist inflation and prosperity were here to stay.
It will be interesting to see what success the campaign has and we hope the Committee will oblige us in due course with details of the number of shareholders in say six or twelve months time. They should make interesting reading, especially if there have been a few more stock exchange shocks in the interim.
At the same time, an analysis of how many hold how much would be useful as well as instructive. We have an idea that the greater part of those 3½ millions hardly matter when it comes to working out who really own stocks and shares.
Do they know?
Our editorial this month deals with the recent stock exchange shake-ups and makes the point that they basically reflect the general unease amongst capitalists concerning present economic prospects.
This unease has spread to most sectors of the economy and is obviously causing our politicians and their advisers some real headaches. Nor, in spite of the long words they like to use and their knowing looks, do they seem to have much idea of what to do about it all.
For example, hardly had Mr. Selwyn Lloyd finished warning us that he might have to lake fresh steps to tighten up demand than he calmly goes and cuts the minimum H.P. deposit from 20 to 10 per cent. Only a little while before, he had eased some of the restrictions on the banks. When it is remembered that he was apparently worried only a few weeks ago about a hire purchase boom, it all seems rather strange.
Some cynics have tried to explain the quick turn round as a by-election gimmick to help the Tories in their present political troubles. Perhaps so. But we have the shrewd suspicion that it only requires capitalism to go into the faintest suggestion of a spin for all the politicians and their economic experts to lose their balance. To be quite frank, we don't think really they have a clue.
The Gold Rush
One further thing we have heard for several years past from our experts is that with the new theories about money, credit, and the general control over capitalism, the importance of gold has become a thing of the past. Some of them have even gone so far as to regard it as a myth, a hoax that has been shown for what it really is by the new economic theory.
Unfortunately, our capitalists only seem to think there may be something in these theories when there is little chance of their being put to the test. Immediately things begin to get uncertain, they forget all about the theories and rush us quickly as they can into gold. Which explains the present sudden interest in gold mining shares and the heavy buying of the metal itself.
This is the classic way the capitalists have always acted in times of stress. Not currency, not stocks and shares; but lovely, shiny, golden, gold. As for economic theory, they will come back to that after the crisis has blown over.
Karl Marx, over a hundred years ago, would have found it a quite natural thing for the capitalists to do. He for one was under no delusion about the importance of gold to the capitalist system. The universal equivalent he called it, and universal equivalent it still is.
Stan Hampson
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