Sunday, August 3, 2025

Behind the gathering war clouds (1948)

From the August 1948 issue of the Socialist Standard

In the course of the last fifty years there have been two major wars and many smaller ones. The second major war, that which ended in 1945, involved the greater part of the world’s population in its devastation and misery. It left behind it sufferings and hatreds, problems and disorders, that still paralyse efforts at amelioration. But war on a still vaster scale is already on the horizon ; war will always be either with us or on the horizon while Capitalism lasts, because modern wars are caused by the clash of interests inseparable from Capitalism and stemming from its root, the control and disposal of the surplus wealth wrung from the workers in all lands.

War is only possible because the workers of the world have not yet understood the identity of their interests as workers in opposition to the interests of their masters, regardless of colour, race or creed. Whilst this condition remains, workers of different nations can be inveigled into shedding their blood for alleged objectives that, even if accomplished, leave them still an enslaved and exploited class; beasts of burden, crushed down by the weight of modern industry. In days gone by many subterfuges have been used to entice workers into the support of war; such are the alleged defence of democracy and of the right of small nations to self-determination, resisting the alleged aggression of other nations, safeguarding essential sources of food supply, and so on. Yet when war has ended in the victory of the groups that put forward these seductive objects not only have the workers experienced no amelioration in their conditions of exploitation but again they are called to war for the very same objects, though in the meantime some of the enemies have become allies, some of the allies have become enemies, and the exploiting system has gained a firmer strangle-hold upon the world at large. And so it goes on and always will go on while the workers are deprived of the ownership of the means of production, and Capitalism, with its economic rivalries, its brutalities and its oppressions, continues to darken the world we live in.

The economic rivalries, produced by Capitalism, which lead to wars, are complex and changing, like the shifting dominance of different capitalist sections; at one time it is the demand of the cotton section for raw materials and the power to force their goods into reluctant markets, at another time it is the steel section whose interests have to be served, or the shipping section that demands protection against competitors, or the financial section that demands protection for its investments abroad, and at yet another time the demands of the oil section of the capitalist class are the ruling factor. The demands of all these sections are always operating, but at a given moment one of them becomes so insistent, that it tips the scale in favour of war. These are the real factors that, individually or in combination, produce modern wars, but they are not the professed ones; over these factors is drawn a curtain of high-flown and empty ideals. Therefore in order to understand the immediate influences, behind an impending war it is necessary to examine the shape of these economic rivalries and to see which are most pregnant with armed conflict.

Two fundamental events of recent years have an important influence on the war situation ; one is the emergence of Russia as a first class imperialist power, and the other is the intrusion of America into Europe, the Middle East and beyond. Russia has undergone a hothouse development in the past thirty years, but it still lags behind economically. It is attempting to make up for this lag by spreading wider and wider over border states and absorbing their economic resources as well as, at the same time, cutting off markets and sources of raw materials that were formerly open to the West. America, the state upon which others outside Russian influence have been compelled to lean more and more heavily, must find markets for its superabundant production and raw materials to supplement its own now inadequate supplies. Russia stands more and more firmly as a barrier across its path. The breaking up of the British Empire, the downfall of Germany, Austria, Italy and Japan, and the disintegration of French economy by the war, reduces these powers to the position of poor relations leaning upon America or Russia according to which of the two appears to offer the best hope of wealth and security to their respective capitalists.

In furthering their economic ends the leading states have two objectives that are complementary. One consists of those actions, economic, political and diplomatic, which enable them to enlarge the market for their, goods and secure sources of supply; the other consists of those actions which are intended to enable them to resist armed attack, or force submission, by building up the most murderous forms of armament within the present range of human ingenuity. The building up of armaments in turn breeds fresh economic struggles in the effort to accumulate the material that forms the basis of armament. The development of the atomic bomb is an example of this and is expressed in the search for, and the conservation of, the materials essential for atomic bomb production. Thus there is an intermingling of economic motives in the pursuit of economic and military dominance, because the means to carry on modem warfare are rooted in the quantity, diversity and development of the resources for building up methods of destruction. Along with this is the tragic circumstance that whether production is adjusted for peaceful or for warlike purposes, sections of the international capitalist class accumulate wealth out of the labour extracted from the working class, and they do so without even coming within the familiar category of ”war profiteers.”

We have briefly related the general economic circumstances bound up with the breaking out of warfare and which apply with equal force to the conflagration which is already casting its shadow before. What particular set of interests will finally precipitate the armed struggle it is too early yet to say with any degree of certainty, although those concerned with oil are, at the moment, the most prominent. To all the first class powers oil is essential both for peace and war purposes. Motorisation for road and air tranport alone requires enormous quantities of oil, quantities greater than any of the leading states have so far found within their own frontiers. Hence the international preoccupation, with the Middle East and its future which has partly obscured the success of Russian penetration in Burma. The struggle over oil has brought America permanently into the maelstrom of political ferment in Europe and the Middle East as the big stick with which to curb Russia’s imperial penetration. In co-operation with the European States America is the potent influence in the attempt to build a wall (which keeps crumbling in places) of resistance around Russia; a wall whose ramparts they hope may penetrate the iron curtain.

Since the last war Russian expansion has continued to creep along successfully, largely because their methods, like Hitler’s, have included the open use of brutal and naked force. They have also been considerably helped by the successful appeal their propaganda makes to large groups in the areas they have more or less tightly annexed to the new Russian Empire. It is this propaganda, false though much of it is, that inspires alarm in the rulers of the Western states. Like the French Revolution it has built up large bodies of admirers in the camp of the enemy. In a wild attempt to eliminate the. results of this propaganda, stupid attacks are being made upon the holding of political opinions antagonistic to the ruling powers. Capitalism in the West has produced so much misery for the mass of the people that its supporters can no longer find convincing arguments in favour of its continuance. It is for this reason that many disillusioned workers give willing ear to the false promises that come from the East shutting their eyes to the manifest evils of Russian domination. It is like the old internal business, of voting first one capitalist party into power and then, disgusted wilh the result, voting the other capitalist party into power, and so on backward and forward.

The extent of Russian penetration, and the, seriousness of its threat to the economic interests of Western capitalists, can only be properly appreciated if the enormous area covered by it is realised. This area, starting in Finland, sweeps round through Germany, Czecho-slovakia, Hungary, Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Mongolia, and includes Italy, Greece, Burma, and other states. Farther East it is a matter of speculation what may be in process of preparation on the Siberian side of the Bering Strait opposite Alaska.

In Europe a desperate attempt is being made to create, a West European-British bloc that will be large enough to provide an internal market for mass production industry and some military backbone that might induce the weaker states to refrain from entering the Russian maw. In the East, China is being left to resist the invader as it can, and Japan is an uneasy protege of distant sea-powers.

Russia is admirably situated for military operations on land that would be difficult to resist by powers that must depend largely upon transportation by sea and air; it covers so vast an area, and its main centres are so far apart, that it is problematical whether even atomic warfare at its present level would be able to deliver a crushing blow, though it would cause an enormous amount of devastation. It is probably this last fact that is mainly behind Russian readiness to strain diplomatic pressure to the limit but not beyond. Russia’s over-riding problem at present is economic backwardness which will require some years to overcome, even with the assistance of the areas over which it is gaining control. In the meantime the Russian Government is trying to accomplish its ends by diplomatic bludgeoning without going far enough to precipitate conflict.

Thus the struggle goes on with increased tension, for oil, uranium, rubber, and other essential products that are widely distributed. The game of penetration, resistance and counter penetration, however, is fast reaching the point when, however disinclined either group may be to take the risk, war will be the final arbiter between their respective claims to dominate the world, unless the workers take their long overdue hand in the game and decide that what their own hands and brains are responsible for producing should he the equal and common heritage of all mankind; that the world, free from the ominous shadow of war, wherein all the inhabitants can enjoy comfort and security is worth the thought and effort required to achieve it.

All the present signs point to the next war involving America and Russia as the principal antagonists, with Britain the leading ally of America and the attitude of the lesser states doubtful. Economic development and political changes, however, are always liable to affect the line up in the course of time, though these changes only accelerate the forces driving society in armed conflicts under Capitalism. It may be that Germany, the “villain” of the last two great wars, will become the darling child of the Western allies in the next. If this happens then all the fanciful tales about the innate barbarism of Germans, with which we have been fed for years, will suffer a temporary burial.

Whether the groups who form the privileged class of the world play their parts under Democratic Governments, Labour Governments. Communist Dictatorships, or any other titles, they are equally tied to a system of commodity production that contains the seeds of war and hence are opposed to the freedom of the workers from exploitation.

War has never solved, and can never solve, any working class problem; it only helps to make the workers’ position worse in the long run. It brutalises all those concerned in it, cheapening the feeling for human life and all that makes life worth while. Only the continued existence of Capitalism drives society to warfare. The abolition of Capitalism and the establishment of Socialism will remove the causes of war, and is the only way to remove them. Our fellow workers in this and other lands must, therefore, turn a deaf ear to those who, from the East or the West, are striving to get their support for policies that can only lead to the shambles. We urge them to recognise their fundamental identity of interest as the wealth producers of the world ; join together for the purpose of abolishing capitalist domination in all its forms and, by establishing Socialism, make the earth and its products the common inheritance of all. Only then will it be possible to put into operation the socialist principle that will ensure the comfort, security and happiness of the whole of human kind – ”From each according to his capacities, to each according to his needs.”
Gilmac.

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