Six Degrees. Our Future on a Hotter Planet. By Mark Lynas. Fourth Estate. 2007. £12.99
Why do some campaigners against climate change have to exaggerate? Lynas argues that, unless the emission of greenhouse gases peaks by 2015 – in only eight years from now – we will be heading for a “runaway global warming and the destruction of most life on Earth” by 2100.
His book traces, on the basis of scientific studies and hypotheses, the effects on climate and the other changes this will bring, of an average global temperature rise of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6º centigrade respectively. A rise of 1º to 2º by 2100 is already, he says, inevitable, given past and likely CO² emissions up to 2015 but this would be tolerable. His contention is that any rise above this level will not only have damaging effects in terms of rising sea levels, more violent storms, more droughts and desertification, but if CO² go on rising will start a runaway warming that will, when the temperature rise reaches 5- 6º, create Hell on Earth
Socialists are not climatologists. So, in the debate over global warming we can only exercise critical thinking while taking into account the views of the majority of scientists working in the field. Their view, as expressed in the Fourth Assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change in February is that:
“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”.
This statement has clearly been carefully worded. “Most”, that is, not all, leaving room for the possibility that some may be due to natural phenomena beyond human control such as increased solar radiation or volcanic activity. “Since the mid-20th century”, that is, not since 1900, nor since the industrial revolution, but since the time averaged global temperature began rising again after falling in the 1950s and 1960s. “Very likely”, that is, we are not fully certain as we don’t yet know the exact relationship between a given increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and an increase in average global temperature.
The Earth is warming and this is causing problems and something needs to be done about it. Our contention is that the only framework within which anything lastingly effective can be done is a world where the Earth’s resources have become the common heritage of all humanity, so eliminating the vested commercial interests and market forces that have caused global warming. Crying “wolf”, as Lynas does, doesn’t help towards understanding this.
Adam Buick
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