Politicians love talking big numbers: ‘We’re spending £5 million to stop The Thing.’ Or ‘We will spend an additional £20 million to increase The Pittance by a penny.’ When Starmer and his chums came into office they mummered and howled over discovering the astronomical £22 billion ‘fiscal black hole’ left in the public accounts by the Tories. Of course, for the majority of people living on pennies at a time, such figures represent unimaginable amounts. Eking out a few quid from week to week and making every pound work is the lot of most people, so such sums seem like an unforgivable profligacy.
Everyone in politics knew there was a gap in spending plans, and that Labour, despite all its promises not to increase taxation, would have to find a way to close this spending gap. The Tories had arguably laid a trap for Labour, in the form of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), a supposedly apolitical authority that marks the UK government’s financial homework. The problem is, if politicians and press just ignore it, it doesn’t do much good.
It does provide useful data, though. Its Brief Guide to the Public Finances provides a lot of the clarity regarding government spending that is missing from much of the daily rhetoric. The key piece of data is the total spend by the government: ‘In 2024-25, we expect it to spend £1,278.6 billion, equivalent to around £45,000 per household or 44.4 per cent of national income.’ Against that background, £22 billion is a rounding error that could easily be sorted by knocking a few invoices into the next financial year.
The issue is that the income for the state is expected to be ‘£1,141.2 billion, equivalent to around £40,000 per household or 39.7 per cent of national income.’ This is the infamous deficit of £137.3 billion. This means adding to a rising national debt: ‘in 2024-25, we expect debt to be equivalent to 95.9 per cent of national income. It is equivalent to around £2.8 trillion or £98,000 per household’. This is significant, because the government has to pay interest on that debt: ‘Net interest payments on the national debt are expected to cost £105.2 billion in 2024-25’.
To put that in perspective: ‘The biggest items [of public spending] are health £193.3 billion, education £89.2 billion and defence £37.6 billion.’ Whilst, in theory, the state is immortal and need never pay back its total debts (when particular debts fall due, it can just roll them over and borrow more money to pay its creditors), servicing the interest bill can become expensive, especially if confidence in any particular government falls and creditors demand higher interest rates to cover their risks. This means the government has to manage the size of its debt: this is why deficits become such an all-consuming obsession.
Politicians, however, point to the difference between capital spending and current spending. The government invests ‘£146.1 billion – 11 per cent of the total – on capital investment such as roads and buildings and on loans to businesses and individuals’. This spending is backed by physical infrastructure and leads to ownership of assets. On top of that it spends ‘£450.7 billion on the day-to-day ‘current’ running costs of public services, grants and administration. This is 35 per cent of public spending’. Additionally, the government spends £313.0 billion on welfare payments (£150.7 billion of which is pensions).
The government thus prefers to look at the current deficit which: ‘counts all receipts and all current spending, but excludes spending on net investment’. The current deficit stands at £60.7 billion.
This accounts for why Labour made politically disastrous decisions, such as freezing winter fuel payments and cutting Personal Independence Payments (for a paltry £5 billion in savings, which is tiny compared to overall spending, but one twelfth of the current deficit).
They can, if they are lucky, rely on economic growth (which raises tax receipts, and lowers welfare costs) to cover much of the gap: but the plan is to have a current surplus, which gives the Chancellor of the Exchequer space to either cut taxes or increase spending in fresh areas. The expectation is to have £9.9 billion of such headroom by the next election: so the strategy is pain today and jam tomorrow.
As the OBR notes in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2025:: ‘The tax-to-GDP ratio is forecast to increase to a post-war high of 37.7 per cent of GDP in 2027-28. Part of this increase is driven by the policies announced at the previous Budget, including the increase in employer National Insurance Contributions and increases to capital taxes’. From the point of view of the capitalist class, in general, that money going to taxation comes from their available profits and lowers the amount of money available for their profitable capital investment. A record high tax rate, especially one fuelled by an effective employee tax (National Insurance employers’ contributions) will be concerning for them in terms of international competitiveness.
In their eyes, then, government indebtedness is preferable, as it forms a means of funding the state under the control and discretion of the rich, with interest rates being a kind of vote of confidence in the way a government handles the debt. The money from interest payments is also welcome to those of them who lend the government money.
The March report also notes that the government is committed to ‘increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP over the next Parliament, which would be equivalent to £17.3 billion in 2029-30’. This would in part be paid for by a £6.8 billion cut in overseas development spending (this simply represents a change from soft to hard power). This unplanned shift in spending priorities shows how the government’s carefully laid plans to generate a current surplus can easily be thrown off course.
All this wealth, though, was originally produced by the efforts of the working class. How much better and more efficient would it be if that effort was directly focused on human needs, instead of producing taxable money?
Pik Smeet
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