Russia’s Future.
Why not a development towards Socialism?
A group of workers in New York have put the following interesting questions about Russia: —
A group of workers—20 all told—are interested in your viewpoint on the following questions :—1. Can the Soviet Union ever become economically self-sufficient ?2. Can Socialism be built in Russia alone ?The argument we were presented with recently was that—starting out with its present enormous resources and labour power, and the money it may borrow abroad, the Russian State will sell Russian products abroad, turn the part of the surplus value that is left after the payment of interest, State expenses, etc., back into its industrial enterprises, developing its industries to the point of satisfying all national needs till in time there is attained the nearly total economic independence of the country from the rest of the world. This will offer the basis for Socialism in Russia.Please answer in detail and in simple language why, for economic reasons, or any other, (1) and (2) are impossible. Have your explanation appear in the Socialist Standard if possible.
Reply.
If the question of self-sufficiency in Russia could be considered simply as a technical question of adjusting the living habits of the population so that they ate, and wore, and used up in other, ways, only articles which could be produced inside Russia, then self-sufficiency would be quite practicable, as indeed it would also in India, China, the U.S.A. or the British Empire.
The question, however, cannot very usefully be considered in that form because in no country is the production and distribution of wealth simply a technical question. In all countries it is as well a political question, involving the wealth and position of separate classes.
Before going further into that aspect, let us put another question. Is Russia becoming more self-sufficient or less ? The answer is that the development of Russia is away from self-sufficiency—not towards it.
Back in the eighties of last century, Russian imports and exports together amounted to only about £100,000,000 a year. For a country of that size it was negligible, as can be seen from a comparison with England’s foreign trade, which was seven times as great, although Russia’s population was several times as large as England’s. Russia then, particularly as regards the great mass of the population, was all but self-supporting.
By 1914 her trade had nearly trebled, showing clearly that Russia, like the other countries, was giving up self-sufficiency. During the six years after the war, Russia’s foreign trade was ruined, and again Russia was practically self-sufficient. Since 1924 her foreign trade-has rapidly grown again, and by 1930 and 1931 had reached a level not very far short of the pre-war level.
The present world crisis has, of course, adversely affected Russia, as was pointed out at the World Economic Conference by M. Litvinoff, who represented the Russian Government. (See Report of his address published in the Monthly Review of the Moscow Narodny Bank, Ltd., London, June.) The crisis compelled the Russian Government to curtail its imports because, owing to the fall in the prices of the articles Russia was exporting, the Russian Government was unable to obtain sufficient foreign currency to pay for the imports it had planned.
This does not, however, mean a permanent increase in Russia’s self-sufficiency. On the contrary, M. Litvinoff held out to the Conference delegates the attractive offer that the Russian Government “might agree to place orders abroad in the near future to the sum of about one billion dollars” (about £200,000,000), which, he said, “would have no small influence in the alleviation of the crisis.” To do this the Russian Government would need easier trading conditions from foreign, manufacturers.
Now that we have shown that Russia is moving away from self-sufficiency, let us ask why. Why does Russia or any other country import some articles and export others? Usually, it is because it is cheaper to produce an article in one country, and in particular areas of the same country, than in other areas or other countries. The cheapness may be due to climate and soil, cheaper labour-power, the presence of coal, iron or other mineral deposits, lower rates and taxes, lower tariffs, etc. (There are, of course, other complicating factors, such as restrictions or subsidies resulting from the military needs of the Governments.) The net effect of these differences is that it is more profitable to the English capitalist to invest his money in, say, machine manufacture and shipbuilding, than it is to invest it in cattle raising in England. The consequence is that certain industries survive in one country and are able to undersell and ruin their competitors in other countries and we get world trade and a large measure of interdependence. Governments often try to impede this development, either in order to help their friends in certain industries by means of tariffs, or for military reasons; and in times of acute depression almost all Governments try to restrict imports as a means of protecting their gold reserves, which they fear may be drained away to pay for the imports, and thus destroy confidence in the financial stability of the Government. If the difference in the cost of producing certain articles in different countries is sufficiently great, the import and export of these articles will surmount all obstacles.
For example, Russia at present is able to produce cheaply oil, timber and various foodstuffs, but cannot yet produce equally cheaply much-needed ores, metals and machinery. Therefore it “pays” Russia to concentrate on the production of certain' articles for export and use the money to pay for imports. On balance this is more profitable than trying to be self-sufficient. The world crisis and consequent slump in prices of oil and grain and timber has hit Russia’s export industries, but even a slight recovery in the world prices of these articles will restore the position of the years before the crisis, when it will again be profitable for Russia to maintain and expand her industries producing for export.
Our correspondents envisage the possibility of Russia “developing its industries to the point of satisfying all national needs.” This assumes that the conditions favouring the development of Russia’s foreign trade are disappearing or will disappear, but is there any reason to suppose that this will occur ? The mere growth of Russian production due to an all-round increase of productivity in all branches of industry and agriculture, mining, etc., will not make foreign trade any less profitable, for it will be accompanied by a parallel increase of productivity in industry all over the world. If it pays Russia to import machinery paid for by the export of oil or timber, any increase in the productivity of the Russian timber or oil industries will lead to a growth of foreign trade, as also will any increase in the productivity of the machine manufacturing industries outside Russia. On the other hand, Russia’s foreign trade would decline in volume if her machine manufacturing industries became more productive (that is cheaper) than the foreign machine manufacturing industries, or if the Russian oil and timber industries become less productive than their foreign competitors.
From what we know of the way in which agricultural and industrial technique advances all over the world, we can say with some certainty that for many years to come no changes are likely to occur of so revolutionary a nature that they will destroy the factors militating against self-sufficiency in Russia or any other comparable area.
The second question relates to building Socialism in Russia alone. Here again we can say that if Socialism depended only on the technical possibility of maintaining the life of the population on products within a given area like Russia or U.S.A., there would be no impossibility about Socialism in Russia alone. In fact, however, Socialism pre-supposes a whole range of conditions which are wholly or mainly lacking in Russia. It pre-supposes a population which has exhausted, and knows that it has exhausted, all the main possibilities inherent in capitalism, and knows and wants Socialism.
Russia, owing to the relatively backward condition of its industry and agriculture and to the fact that the overwhelming mass of its population has not spent its lifetime under conditions of highly developed industrial capitalism, has not exhausted the possibilities of capitalism. So far, therefore, from welcoming Socialism, the mass of the Russian population wants nothing better than to be left alone to enjoy the fruits of expanding capitalism. The efforts of the Government, carried on for sixteen years, to crush, placate, or remould the peasants, are evidence of the magnitude of the force against which Socialism in Russia would have to struggle. The attempt of the Bolsheviks to force an unwanted social system on an unready population, by means of its control of the State machine and the armed forces, will fail, as Marx said it would.
Our correspondents can perhaps grasp this best by considering the impossible task of forcing Socialism on the population of the U.S.A., a country far better equipped in every way than Russia for such an experiment.
Edgar Hardcastle







